The US Presidential Election 2016, and Its Effect on Brexit
Okay, first thing's first, as much as we can assume and postulate, we don't know exactly how bad the result of the election will be. Potentially, Donald Trump could have a very positive effect on the US economy, and this might have an overarching positive influence on the global economy. However, this may also not be the case as a result of the fairly large Republican Majority in Congress - both the Senate and the House of Representatives. I'm of the opinion that he's really going to show us the meaning of 2020 vision when it comes to the next US Election, but I guess that remains to be seen.Right, now into the bulk of it. If you aren't up-to-date with Brexit, essentially the referendum resulted in Leave winning 52% of votes, from more than 30 million voters (roughly 71.8% of the British population). However, after the result, it became apparent very quickly that facts had been skewed and falsified in order to manipulate the voters to vote Leave, and there is currently an investigation into this. Now, the Supreme Court in the UK has essentially said that there must be a vote in Commons regarding whether or not Article 50 should or should not be activated, notifying the EU on the full intention to leave. This is what must happen in order for the UK to leave the European Union. There currently is an appeal date set for December, though this may or may not succeed, though this could delay the exit talks past the March 2017 preliminary date set by the PM Theresa May.
Personally, I'm of the opinion that MPs should force a general election, especially since May seems too attached to the position to call one herself, despite being unelected by the public. This would also require serious talks about what happens with regard to Brexit, since the winning party could then be pro-EU leading to a lean away from Brexit, if they draw attention to the investigation into fact skewing by the Leave campaign, and/or if they hold a second referendum (which it seems possible that the Remain vote would beat Leave by a fair amount). Naturally, I have a degree of bias with regard to being both a Labour supporter, and pro-EU, but this feels like one of the only truly-democratic ways to continue.
Now, with regard to Trump's impending Presidency and Brexit, we must pay attention to his desire to repair the economy, and "Make America Great Again". There are implications here that tariffs could be imposed, and self-sufficiency could become a key part of domestic policy in the US, and this could have extremely serious ramifications on global trade, and the global economy on the whole. Leaving the EU while America could be moving away from overseas trade could be potentially disastrous, especially since the fall of the pound (which mirrors the possibility of leaving the EU, pound falling when it seems likely, and rising when it seems we may not). We really must consider the effect leaving the EU would have on trade with EU countries, who may become less cooperative in terms of trade. This needs to be a large focus of exit talks if Article 50 does get activated. Even if Brexit is then delayed, even if only for the duration of Trump's Residency in the White House, that could make the difference between the further collapse of an already-dilapidated economy, or economic recovery long overdue.
Just to sum up, Brexit may not happen, be it better or worse for Britain, and it may be better to postpone it for Trump's term as a result of his implications to an economically nationalist America.